2020
Changing climatic conditions, abnormally warm and dry winters, shorter transitional seasons — spring and autumn, extreme weather and a lack of precipitation are creating serious problems for agricultural producers around the world. Ukraine is no exception. So how does climate change affect the crops in Ukrainian farmers' rotations?
Experts predict that in the coming years the standard winter temperature will range within +4…-4ºC, and summer will become two to three weeks longer. In 30 years, the average temperature across Ukraine may rise by another 2ºC. We are already seeing very hot summers in the south and east of Ukraine, winters are becoming less cold, and droughts in the southern regions have become almost twice as frequent. Given these circumstances, experts predict that Ukraine's production of grains, vegetables and grapes will decline, and rapeseed and pea yields will also fall.
Take the risk or leave it fallow?
Only a few days remain before the start of the spring sowing campaign in all regions. Sowing of spring crops has already begun in the south of Odesa region.
«These are risky sowings, as moisture reserves are very limited. In some regions of Ukraine there is a critical lack of moisture in the one-metre soil layer, and last year Poltava, Rivne and Cherkasy regions, which were not prepared for this at all, suffered from such a situation. Producers there harvested a low corn yield, even though they had the best hybrids of imported breeding. This affects the situation in the current season, and more specifically — purchases for the upcoming sowing campaign,» notes Oleksii Zheleznikov, a representative of Eridon.
According to him, in some regions, especially in Southern Ukraine, producers plan to leave areas fallow due to lack of precipitation and insufficient moisture in the one-metre soil layer.
According to a survey conducted by AgroPortal.ua, 18% of agricultural producers said: «I will radically change the structure of my sowings. Climate change affects the crop structure in my region.» The same number of respondents said they sow corn year after year and are not going to change anything. 13% of farmers intend to «change not the crop structure, but the approach to farming». 5% of respondents plan to grow niche crops, 4% said that pricing will be the main factor for them. Another 4% do not intend to introduce new crops into their rotation.
Corn «moving» north and changing FAO
According to Anton Kriuchkov, regional manager of Corteva Agriscience in Ukraine, over the last 10 years Ukraine's corn belt has geographically «moved up» north by 50-100 km of longitude. The sunflower belt has expanded significantly and continues to expand to the north and west. Sunflower areas almost equal to corn areas in the northern regions are already the near future.
«This shift of the corn belt and expansion of the sunflower range is caused by a deficit of soil moisture, severe droughts in the steppe and forest-steppe zones, and dry winds during the growing season of crops in central Ukraine. However, there are breeding solutions for obtaining a harvest even under such conditions. For example, Pioneer brand corn hybrids of the Optimum® AQUAMax® line (Р9242, Р9903) are adapted to difficult conditions, always pollinate quickly and within a short time, and give good yields under unfavourable conditions. It is also worth saying that these dent hybrids can be sown earlier, which is now a very important factor,» notes Anton Kriuchkov.
According to him, the significant increase in sunflower areas in the northern and western parts of Ukraine has led to a reduction in the winter grain acreage, while the «relocation» of corn northward has led to a critical increase in sunflower areas in the southern and central regions.
As Eridon representative Oleksii Zheleznikov noted, climate change, reduced precipitation and rising temperatures allow farmers to take risks and increase corn FAO to unlock its potential.
«But on the other hand, the moisture deficit greatly limits this factor. And we see that 5% of the mid-season group of corn hybrids will shift to the mid-early group. For example, this season FAO 300-400 will decrease by 5%, and FAO 200-300 will increase by 5%,» predicts Oleksii Zheleznikov.
According to him, producers who have irrigation can use weather changes to their advantage, as the temperature is higher and they can control moisture. However, in the southern regions, where drought is felt most, irrigated areas do not exceed 5% of the total farmland there.
LNZ Group, meanwhile, notes that no significant fluctuations in its production crop rotations are planned for now; it is the technologies that will change.
«The crop rotation is not changing globally, the approaches are changing. Corn sowing has not changed, it still accounts for 50% of the acreage structure, but we will definitely reduce the daily sowing rate; more precisely, there will be data after analyses carried out in our laboratories within three days of sowing. We select the seeds most suitable for drought, in particular the Dekalb segment,» says Roman Franchuk, Director of Agricultural Production at LNZ Group, sharing the plans.
If sunflower, then sulfo hybrids
Judging by Eridon's seed sales volumes, it can be said that there is strong demand for high-oleic sunflower seeds this season.
«We also have an imbalance in sunflower hybrids in terms of technologies: the share of Clearfield has decreased and the share of CLP hybrids has increased. Currently, companies have offers of sunflower sulfo hybrids precisely for the southern and eastern regions, where there are problems with the amount of precipitation. For farmers, sulfo hybrids are much better,» notes Oleksii Zheleznikov.
Anton Kriuchkov notes that the changes related to the shift of sunflower are reflected in the phytosanitary condition of the crops.
«The migration of quarantine weeds has accelerated significantly. In particular, the migration of sunflower broomrape northward has sped up. Sunflower broomrape in the south of Kyiv region is already a reality. But here breeding comes to the farmer's aid. Corteva Agriscience's portfolio includes sunflower hybrids that have proven themselves as a truly resistant solution for the entire territory of Ukraine. They are sown in zones of critical broomrape infestation and in zones of increased downy mildew risk,» says Anton Kriuchkov.
Another trend noted by seed market experts is producers' interest in a crop such as sorghum.
«By our estimates, sorghum occupies only 40-50 thousand ha in Ukraine, and this year there is a huge shortage of seeds of this crop. That is, sowing areas will be limited by seed availability. There are farmers who have already compared corn and sorghum, and they liked the latter very much. Sorghum seed producers simply did not plan for such demand for this crop in Ukraine and have nothing to offer producers,» notes Oleksii Zheleznikov.
What can be done to preserve moisture?
Mykola Suchek, Head of R&D at Vitagro Partner, advises producers facing moisture shortages to give preference to varieties that start earlier. For example, to use a soybean or sunflower variety with a starting growth score of 9, meaning seedlings emerge not in 2 weeks but on day 8-10. «The faster the plant starts at the early stages, the faster the root system strengthens, and then stress factors will not be as harmful,» says Mykola Suchek.
According to him, today the problem is not only a lack of moisture, but a complex soil problem in general.
«Over the last five years, farmers have been changing their approach to tillage — moving away from active turning of the soil layer. We apply organic fertilizers, as soils are poor in organic matter and unable to retain the meagre amount of moisture that falls as rain. Therefore, it is advisable to introduce green manure crops into the rotation, which will be ploughed in,» the scientist recommends. He adds that new varieties may become the answer to the challenge of climate change.
«We have two new spring barley varieties. Previously we used only varieties of foreign breeding, but since last year we have started cooperation with the Plant Breeding and Genetics Institute in Odesa. They specialise in creating drought-resistant varieties,» says Mykola Suchek.
However, along with climate change, crop rotation changes are also influenced by sales market conditions. Thus, according to Anton Kriuchkov, corn with a significant gross yield per area is economically more attractive than winter grains, and sunflower can deliver good economic results even in a weather «failure» year.
So the best adaptation to both causes — economics and climate change — is choosing optimal tillage and plant nutrition systems, soil moisture conservation technologies and the right hybrids.
